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Experimental Capture/recapture Estimation Using Census and Administrative Data

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Paper Number
CES-WP-26-38
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Census Bureau
Program
Decennial Census

This report expands upon the innovation of utilizing administrative records and third-party data implemented in the 2020 Census. The 2020 Census used administrative records and third-party data in address canvassing and nonresponse follow-up operations. The Census Bureau also has a long history of using administrative records of births, deaths, and other information to produce Demographic Analysis coverage estimates. Since 1980, the Census Bureau has produced capture-recapture coverage estimates by conducting an independent post-enumeration survey and utilizing dual system estimation approaches. This report presents the research results of attempting to see if administrative records and third-party data could be utilized to produce capture-recapture coverage estimates. This work uses an Expectation Maximization Log Linear Modeling approach previously researched by Statistics Netherlands and Statistics New Zealand. This report documents some of the experimental results from an evaluation that was part of the 2020 Census Program for Evaluation, Experiments, and Assessments.

  • Topic Area
    Administrative Records
    Study Type
    Evaluation > > Outcome
    Outcome
    Coverage
    Geography
    National