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Evaluation

The Foundations for Evidence-Based Policy Making Act of 2018 requires agencies to make agency data public when possible and to develop statistical evidence to support policymaking. The Department of Commerce's evaluation policy is that evaluations must be transparent. Evaluation design and findings should be made public to the greatest extent possible and should only be withheld for legal, ethical, or national security concerns. Findings should provide enough detail so that others can review, interpret, or replicate/reproduce the work.

Learn more about Evaluation at the Department of Commerce.

Evidence and Evaluations

Displaying 1 - 13 of 13

How Big is Small? The Economic Effects of Access to Small Business Government Support

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Census Bureau

We study the effects of vast increases in U.S. small business program eligibility standards, which expanded larger firms' access to support for small businesses. Exploiting quasi-random variation in...

CTRL+EXP+DEL: The Domestic Costs of U.S. Export Controls

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
Bureau of Industry and Security
U.S. Census Bureau
Program
Export Controls

National-security restrictions on exports constrain exporters' market access, but empirical evidence on their domestic costs is limited. We leverage data on export transactions that include the...

Intellectual property and the U.S. economy in 2024

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

Over the past few decades, U.S. companies have invested more heavily in intangible capital—such as research and development (R&D), software, data, and training— than in physical, tangible capital like...

Economic Decision Guide Software (EDGe$) Case Study: Droughts in Riverside County, California

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Program
Economic Decision Guide Software Online Tool

This study uses the Economic Decision Guide Software (EDGe$) Online Tool to evaluate a use case involving three potential drought resilience strategies in Riverside County, California: 1. urban...

Experimental Capture/recapture Estimation Using Census and Administrative Data

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Census Bureau
Program
Decennial Census

This report expands upon the innovation of utilizing administrative records and third-party data implemented in the 2020 Census. The 2020 Census used administrative records and third-party data in...

Efficiency and accuracy assessment of an automated image classifier for commercially important fish species

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Program
National Marine Fisheries Service

Experts that analyze video collected from underwater optical systems can routinely provide accurate species counts. However, the high opportunity costs of expert time have entailed delays in...

Early Evidence on the Relationship Between AI, Costs, and Prices Within BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Program
Economic Measurement

In previous work, Highfill and Samuels [2026], we explored the relationship between AI and the sources of U.S. economic growth. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between AI adoption...

Overseas Visitor Impact on State Economies | 2024

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
International Trade Administration
Program
National Travel and Tourism Office

For the first time since 1997, the National Travel and Tourism Office has estimated the economic impact of overseas visitors for U.S. states and territories. These new estimates include overseas...

NOAA's Space Weather Next Program Cost Benefit Analysis

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This report presents a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of NOAA’s Space Weather Next (SW Next) program, structured to align with the requirements of OMB Circular A-4. Space weather poses...

Early Estimates of the Impact of AI Within BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Program
Economic Measurement

Currently, there is not a line item in the U.S. national accounts that can be used to identify and measure the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Therefore, we use tools to indirectly...

An Aquaculture Opportunity Area Atlas for the Gulf of Alaska

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Program
National Ocean Service

This Alaska Atlas includes technical information that may be used to assist agency decision-makers in identifying potential Aquaculture Opportunity Areas (AOAs) as required by Executive Order (E.O.)...

Integrating Multiple U.S. Census Bureau Data Assets to Create Standardized Profiles of Program Participants

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Census Bureau
Program
Economic Measurement

The Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 (Evidence Act) directed federal agencies to systematically use data when making policy decisions. In response, the U.S. Census Bureau...

Measuring Artificial Intelligence Use by Businesses

Published Date
Fiscal Year
FY 2026
Bureaus and Offices
U.S. Census Bureau
Program
Economic Measurement

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to radically transform our economy; however, it is not clear how this technology will diffuse across businesses, what complementary investments are...